Nike Inc. is heading into its second-quarter earnings report facing fresh evidence that its recovery remains fragile, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year sales decline driven largely by a sharp slowdown in China and intensifying competition in global footwear markets.
Wall Street expects Nike to report quarterly revenue of about $12.2 billion, down roughly 1% from a year earlier, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. The projected drop would follow an 8% revenue decline in the same quarter last year, underscoring the company's difficulty in regaining momentum.
The most significant pressure point is Greater China, where analysts estimate revenue will fall about 9% to roughly $1.6 billion. That would extend a downturn that has persisted despite broader growth in Chinese consumer spending and comes after Nike posted an 11% currency-adjusted decline in the region a year ago.
China's overall retail sales of consumer goods rose 4.3% in the first 10 months of 2025 to more than 40 trillion yuan, according to official data. Analysts say Nike's underperformance reflects brand-specific challenges rather than a simple macroeconomic slowdown, as local and international rivals expand aggressively.
Across Nike's portfolio, footwear-the company's largest category-is expected to decline about 2% to $7.5 billion. Apparel revenue is forecast to rise modestly by 1% to around $3.8 billion, while equipment sales could increase 2% to roughly $555 million.
Converse, Nike's smaller sneaker brand, remains a notable drag. Analysts expect Converse revenue to fall about 18% to approximately $350 million, continuing a multiquarter slide that has weighed on overall results.
Regionally, estimates point to uneven performance:
- North America: Flat at about $5.2 billion
- EMEA: Up roughly 3% to $3.4 billion
- Asia Pacific & Latin America: Down about 1% to $1.7 billion
Sales channels are also diverging. Wholesale revenue, generated through third-party retailers, is expected to rise about 3% to $7.1 billion. Direct-to-consumer sales via Nike-owned stores and digital platforms are forecast to decline about 5% to $4.8 billion, reflecting weaker store traffic and heavier promotions.
Visible Alpha analysts have flagged sustained discounting and inventory clearing as key margin pressures, noting that Nike has leaned more heavily on promotions to move older product. At the same time, fast-growing brands such as On and Hoka continue to gain share, particularly in running and performance footwear.
