Nvidia is expected to deliver another blockbuster quarter when it reports fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 25, but analysts at Goldman Sachs say the company's share price reaction will depend less on near-term results and more on management's visibility into demand beyond 2026.
In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs said it expects Nvidia to post roughly a $2 billion revenue beat for the fourth quarter, bringing total revenue to about $67.3 billion. "We expect Nvidia to deliver a ~$2bn revenue beat in 4Q, and we stand 8% above the Street for 1Q revenue," the analysts wrote, adding that their earnings-per-share forecasts are also well above consensus.
Despite the anticipated upside, Goldman cautioned that strong quarterly numbers may already be reflected in the stock. "We believe upside to Nvidia's CY26 estimates is largely priced into the stock at current levels, and stock price outperformance will hinge on revenue visibility into CY27," the note said. The bank maintained a 12-month price target of $250 per share, implying more than 30% upside from recent levels.
Goldman's longer-term projections underscore the market's focus on Nvidia's growth trajectory after the current artificial intelligence investment cycle. The firm expects Nvidia to generate earnings of $4.49 per share on revenue of $215.1 billion in 2027, before accelerating further to $12.13 in earnings on $513 billion in revenue by 2028.
A central driver of that outlook is Nvidia's data center business. Goldman modeled $500 billion in data center revenue for 2026, a figure it described as "well above the Street." The analysts said any added clarity from management on demand extending into 2027 would likely be viewed positively by investors.
Another potential catalyst is continued spending by large AI developers. Goldman pointed to rising demand from companies building large language models, including OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which require massive GPU deployments. The bank said "initial signs of execution from OpenAI, and commentary from Nvidia on visibility into those deployments," could support the stock.
Geography may also play a role. China once accounted for more than 20% of Nvidia's revenue, but that contribution has fallen sharply following U.S. export controls. Goldman noted that recent policy shifts allowing sales of Nvidia's H200 GPUs, alongside eased constraints from Chinese officials, could lift demand if management offers constructive commentary on the earnings call.
On the product front, Nvidia is preparing to transition from its Blackwell architecture to the next-generation Rubin GPUs, with shipments expected to begin in the third quarter and ramp meaningfully in the fourth. Goldman said favorable updates on Rubin deployment could reinforce expectations for sustained growth through at least 2028.
