President Donald Trump is portraying Black and Hispanic voters as an expanding part of the Republican coalition, arguing that opposition to socialism is driving minority voters toward the GOP. Recent polling cited by The Atlantic and Bloomberg Government, however, suggests Republicans may be losing some of the gains Trump made with those groups during the 2024 presidential election.
Trump made the claim Sunday on Truth Social, casting the shift as a rejection of the Democratic Party's ideological direction. "Black and Brown Voters don't want Communism or Socialism - Not surprisingly, they are flocking to the Republican Party!" Trump wrote. "They remember that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican! President DONALD J. TRUMP."
The assertion builds on one of the most consequential changes in the 2024 electorate. Trump improved substantially among Hispanic voters and also made inroads among Black voters, particularly men, challenging Democrats' longstanding assumption that large minority margins would remain a dependable part of their electoral coalition.
Those gains were particularly striking among Hispanics. Trump won nearly half of the Hispanic vote in 2024, according to figures cited by The Atlantic, a performance that intensified Democratic concerns about the party's standing with working-class and younger minority voters.
The picture heading toward the 2026 midterm elections appears different. The Atlantic, citing recent polling, reported that Trump is now "bleeding support among Black and Hispanic voters, and especially men."
Republican support among Hispanic voters is currently running at roughly 27% to 35% in polling cited by The Atlantic. While presidential-election results and midterm polling aren't directly comparable, the numbers suggest that Trump's 2024 performance hasn't necessarily translated into a durable partisan realignment.
The deterioration appears more pronounced among Black Americans. Bloomberg Government cited polling showing Trump's approval rating among Black voters at 16%, describing "significant dips" in minority support as a potential problem for Republican candidates approaching the midterms.
The numbers complicate, rather than erase, the political significance of 2024. Trump demonstrated that Republicans could compete more effectively for voters in demographic groups that had overwhelmingly favored Democrats for decades, but the latest polling raises a different question: whether those voters were moving permanently toward the GOP or responding to the particular economic and political conditions of the 2024 election.
Trump is offering an ideological explanation. His Sunday post argued that Black and Hispanic voters are rejecting "Communism or Socialism," language Republicans have increasingly used against progressive Democrats and candidates associated with democratic-socialist politics.
Recent victories by left-wing Democrats, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, have given Republicans additional opportunities to make socialism a campaign issue. Some progressive candidates have received backing from or maintained ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, allowing Republicans to portray their victories as evidence of a broader leftward movement within the Democratic Party.
Polling cited by Theodore R. Johnson, a scholar of Black politics, suggests attitudes among Black voters toward democratic socialism aren't necessarily as clear-cut as Trump's message implies. Writing in a Washington Post opinion piece, Johnson said many Black respondents either expressed no opinion about democratic socialism or remained uncertain about it.
Republicans are simultaneously pursuing election policies that Democrats and voting-rights groups argue could complicate the party's effort to expand its minority coalition. Trump has advocated proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration and stricter photo-identification rules, policies supporters describe as election-integrity measures and critics contend could disproportionately burden some minority voters.
