The civil unrest -- or mass acts of civil disobedience such as street protests -- that wracked the world in 2019 is projected to worsen this year and spread to more countries.
Out of the world's 195 countries (including the Vatican and Palestine), almost 25%, or 47 countries, experienced varying degrees of civil unrest in 2019. This percentage is projected to surge to 40% of all the world's countries in 2020, according a data model developed by Maplecroft, a UK global risk and strategic consulting firm owned by Verisk Analytics, Inc. based in New Jersey.
The analysis by Maplecroft published Thursday predicts the number of countries to be hammered by unrest will increase to 75. Maplecroft pointed to Hong Kong and Chile as the two flashpoints suffering the largest increases in unrest since the beginning of 2019. These countries will suffer from civil unrest for at least two more years, predicts Maplecroft.
Many of the grievances that led to civil unrest in 2019 were linked to global political and economic trends such as income inequality, said Miha Hribernik, head of Asia Research at Maplecroft to TIME.
"Stagnating incomes, growing income inequality, corruption, the loss of faith in established elites, and the erosion of civil and political rights were all among concerns that motivated people to protest in the 47 countries, although to varying degrees," noted Hribernik.
For 2020, Sudan, and not Yemen, will become the highest risk country globally, estimates Maplecroft. It will attain this notoriety due to a raging civil unrest sparked by the overthrow of ruler Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. Sudan is being torn apart by violent street protests and killings as the military battles pro-democracy supporters for control of the impoverished country located in northeastern Africa.
Yemen will remain another hotspot for civil disorder and war this year. The relentless violence plaguing this country has gone on since 2015 when Shia and Sunni Muslim forces went at each other's throats to gain control of the government.
Maplecroft said other hotbeds of civil unrest this year would include Bolivia, Lebanon and Nigeria. Countries at "extreme risk" from civil unrest include Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. On the other hand, countries that look set to experience the biggest rise in unrest are Ukraine, Guinea Bissau and Tajikistan. Maplecroft predicts there will be more violent crackdowns by police and security forces in Brazil, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Turkey.
The global civil disorder in 2019 has been compared to the late 1960s, when civil rights, anti-Vietnam War and anti-colonial movements, along with the growth of a youth-led counter culture, ignited violent street protests in dozens of countries.
