COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. might exceed 1 million between September and February if Americans persist in not wearing face masks and refuse social distancing.
A statistical model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington said this was likely if states persist in their "current pattern of easing" restrictions.
The institute called the 1 million projected deaths its worst-case scenario. In the scenario it considers most likely, however, its estimates 511,000 Americans might die between September and February based on the assumption "states would once again shut down interaction and some economic activity" for six weeks once deaths reach a certain threshold per million residents.
The institute is encouraging states to aim for a third scenario where 95% of the population wears face masks and follows social restrictions. Under this best case scenario, deaths will reach 381,000, or 130,000 fewer than under the second scenario.
The institute said some 96,000 more lives might be saved if 85% of Americans use face coverings and follow social restrictions.
Previous institute estimates were below actual results. This might again be the case considering the rise in deaths during the time it was crafting this model.
As of late Sunday the U.S. death toll was 225,111 - the highest of any country, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. ABC News said there were 291,557 American soldiers killed in battle during all of the 45 months of American involvement in World War II. The death toll from COVID-19 was reached in nine months.
The number of fatalities is being attributed to government mismanagement.
Worldwide cases are 8.6 million, according to Johns Hopkins.
Most states are reporting more cases now than during the spring and summer. There were more than 83,000 new cases in the U.S. on Friday and Saturday - the highest daily totals since the pandemic began.
In addition, the seven-day average of new cases has risen this month. It went from 42,348 Oct. 2 to 66,557 Oct. 24, according to COVID Tracking Project data.
The seven-day average for new deaths jumped to 807 Oct. 24 from 703 Oct. 2. Midwestern states have been the hardest hit.
