A mere five months after it was first identified in England, the highly infectious COVID-19 mutation called B.1.1.7 will likely become the dominant variant in the world within the year.
The warning was aired by medical experts in the United Kingdom, where the B.1.1.7 mutation was first identified in Bristol, southwest England in September 2020.
This variant, also called VOC-202012/01, can be up to 70% more contagious than the dominant strain called D614G. It's also the engine driving the current wave of infections that have brought total confirmed cases in the country to nearly four million along with 119,000 deaths.
The UK has the fifth largest number of confirmed cases in the world, chiefly because of this variant.
In November 2020, a quarter of cases in London were caused by the new variant. In December, this percentage increased to a third of all cases while almost 60% of all cases in London involved B.1.1.7.
It's against this backdrop Dr. Sharon Peacock, director of the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, warned B.1.1.7 is now on course to "sweep the world, in all probability" and become the most dominant global strain.
"What's concerning about this is that the 1.1.7 variant that we have had circulating for some weeks and months is beginning to mutate again and get new mutations which could affect the way that we handle the virus in terms of immunity and effectiveness of vaccines," according to Peacock.
"It's concerning that the 1.1.7, which is more transmissible, which has swept the country, is now mutating to have this new mutation that could threaten vaccination."
She also warned further mutations of B.1.1.7 and other virus strains present in the UK may potentially undermine the anti-coronavirus vaccines currently in use worldwide.
The danger to the world from B.1.1.7 is manifest in the extremely rapid spread of this variant around the world in December alone. The first cases in Canada, France, Lebanon, Spain and Sweden were reported on Dec. 26. Cases were then confirmed in Jordan, Norway and Portugal the next day,
Finland and South Korea reported their first cases on Dec. 28 while the mutation hit Chile, India, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates the following day.
The first case of B.1.1.7 in Malta and Taiwan are reported on Dec. 30 while China and Brazil reported their first cases on Dec. 31.
In the United States, B.1.1.7 first appeared late November 2020, and at the start of 2021 accounted for 0.3% of all infections. B.1.1.7 is expected to become predominant by March.
In mid-January, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned B.1.1.7 will become the predominant strain in the U.S.
"We are very concerned about this variant," said Dr. Michael Johansson, one of the authors of a study about the variant.
Johansson said CDC is working to do more testing for this more infectious variant. The mutation's increased contagiousness means the U.S. must double down on mitigation strategies, including distancing, masking and increasing low vaccination rates, said the CDC.
