The more contagious COVID-19 variant called B.1.1.7 might be deadlier than its parent strain, plus data showing vaccines now in use might not be as effective against mutations is setting off alarm bells worldwide.
The stunning announcement B.1.1.7 could be deadlier was made by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This new mutation was first detected in the United Kingdom in September 2020 in Kent and London. It's also called VOC 202012/01.
The unusually high number of mutations undergone by B.1.1.7 has made it up to 70% more contagious than the dominant strain called D614G. Preliminary evidence revealed by Johnson and by UK chief scientific advisor Dr. Sir Patrick Vallance suggests B.1.1.l7 could also be 30% deadlier.
"If you took ... a man in their 60s, the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die with the virus. With the new variant, for 1,000 people infected roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die," said Vallance.
He said the initial data isn't strong enough to make this a definitive conclusion. He also expressed more concern regarding other COVID-19 variants, such as those found in South Africa and Brazil.
The South Africa mutation known as 501Y.V2 can evade antibodies generated by some COVID-19 treatments and might reduce the efficacy of the current line of available vaccines.
"We've been informed today that in addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant -- the variant that was first discovered in London and the southeast (of England) - may be associated with a higher degree of mortality," said Johnson in London.
On the other hand, he said all the evidence suggests the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca-Oxford University, which are currently being used in the UK, remain effective against both the old and new variants of the virus such as B.1.1.7.
Johnson's observation COVID-19 mutations are susceptible to mRNA vaccines was disputed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Fauci said new data shows vaccines appear to be less effective against some new COVID-19 strains.
He was, however, more concerned about 501Y.V2, which has the potential to render some current vaccines ineffective. This observation has not been sufficiently proven, however.
Fauci said even if the drugs and vaccines are less effective against the more transmissible strains, they will still likely provide enough protection to make the vaccines worth getting.
A dip in the vaccines' effectiveness is "all the more reason why we should be vaccinating as many people as you possibly can," said Fauci.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said B.1.1.7, 501Y.V2 and a variant called P.1 first detected in Brazil "are considered to be of concern because of mutations which have led to increased transmissibility and deteriorating epidemiological situations in the areas where they have recently become established."
It rates the risk of infection from this variant as "high/very high."
On the other hand, ECDC does not share Fauci's observation B.1.1.7 is deadlier. It said preliminary studies indicate "there is no evidence that VOC 202012/01 is associated with a significantly different infection severity or that it disproportionally affects certain age groups more than the previous circulating viruses."
It did note, however, that as a result of the increased infection incidence, the UK this month reported the highest daily COVID-19 mortality since the start of the pandemic.
