Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of his real demands regarding the approval of Sweden's NATO membership.
Since September and continuing into this month, Erdogan has repeatedly called on the United States, asserting that the Turkish parliament would vote on Sweden's NATO membership if the U.S. fulfills its promise to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
Last week, Erdogan more explicitly suggested that the Turkish parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO accession should occur "simultaneously" with the U.S. Congress's approval of the sale of F-16s to Turkey.
On December 26, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly approved the bill for Sweden's NATO membership. The full assembly will now vote on Sweden's accession.
Turkey is now awaiting the decision of the U.S. Congress. Erdogan has prepared a Plan B in case the U.S. Congress firmly opposes the sale of F-16s to Turkey.
During the December 26 vote, the Justice and Development Party, Erdogan's party and the largest in the Turkish parliament, expressed its support. Ultimately, with the joint support of parties like the Justice and Development Party and the Republican People's Party, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly approved the bill for Sweden's accession to NATO.
This means Turkey is one step away from agreeing to Sweden's NATO membership. With the full assembly's vote, Turkey will allow Sweden to join NATO.
Turkey, as NATO's second-largest military power, is the biggest obstacle to Sweden's accession. While Hungary has also not approved Sweden's NATO membership, its dispute with Sweden centers on European Union affairs, seeking to unfreeze EU funding for Hungary.
Previously, both Turkey and Hungary delayed approving Finland's NATO membership. Once Turkey approved Finland's membership, Hungary immediately ratified Finland's application.
However, when the Turkish Grand National Assembly will vote on Sweden's NATO membership is uncertain. As Erdogan stated, the timing of the vote depends on the U.S. Congress's attitude toward the sale of F-16s.
Turkey, frequently clashing with Greece, continuing to strike Kurdish forces in Syria, and deeply involved in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, is eager to acquire next-generation fighter jets.
Turkey initially aimed for the more advanced fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets. The country was once part of the U.S. F-35 program, planning to purchase over 100 F-35s and had already paid $1.4 billion in advance to the U.S.
However, after Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system, the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 program and sanctioned it. The U.S. also did not refund the $1.4 billion Turkey had paid.
After being banned from buying the F-35, Turkey began seeking to purchase 40 new F-16s and 79 sets of F-16 upgrade equipment from 2021, with an order value of up to $20 billion. According to Turkey's plan, the unreimbursed $1.4 billion would be used as payment for the new F-16s.
The U.S. Biden administration supports the sale of the new F-16s to Turkey, but the U.S. Congress opposes it, with Democrats criticizing Turkey's human rights and freedom of speech deterioration and its hostile attitude toward NATO allies. Bob Menendez, the former Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Democratic senator, is a representative figure opposing the sale of F-16s to Turkey.
During the review period for U.S. foreign military sales, both the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee have the authority to request a hold on military sales. However, Menendez was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice for bribery in September and resigned as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Erdogan specifically commented on Menendez's indictment, accusing him of being one of the biggest obstacles to Turkey's purchase of F-16s. He acknowledged that Menendez's resignation brought advantages to Turkey but also pointed out that the F-16 issue does not depend solely on Menendez.
Even after Menendez's departure, there are still voices in the U.S. Congress opposing the sale of F-16s to Turkey.
The newly appointed Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, continues to criticize Turkey's deteriorating human rights situation. Gregory Meeks, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is also dissatisfied with Turkey's strikes against the U.S. ally Kurdish forces in Syria.
Last week, Turkey's Defense Minister Hulusi Akar expressed optimism about the prospects of the F-16 deal. He announced that Turkey had completed technical talks with the U.S. for purchasing the F-16s and was looking forward to the U.S. taking "concrete steps" soon.
Akar also pointed out that the European Typhoon fighter is another option for Turkey, "the best and most effective alternative option we consider."
Last month, Turkey began negotiations with the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain to purchase 40 European Typhoon fighters. Turkish officials at the time said that due to the uncertainty of the U.S. Congress's attitude toward the F-16s, Turkey began considering the European Typhoon fighters.
The European Typhoon fighter is a multi-purpose fourth-generation and a half fighter jointly designed and developed by the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain. When it comes to exporting the European Typhoon fighter, any of the four countries has veto power.
Currently, countries other than Germany have expressed willingness to sell fighters to Turkey. Germany is dissatisfied with Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system and Turkey's activities in the eastern Mediterranean.
In 2020, Turkey began drilling for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean. Greece and Cyprus strongly protested, accusing Turkey of violating their sovereignty. Greece also intensified its sea patrols in disputed areas, and at the time, Germany urged the EU to respond clearly to Turkey's actions.
Currently, the UK and Spain are trying to persuade Germany not to veto the sale of European Typhoon fighters to Turkey. Allowing Sweden to join NATO could also serve as leverage for Turkey to pressure Germany.
For Turkey, the best outcome from using Sweden's NATO membership as a bargaining chip would be to purchase both F-16 fighter jets and European Typhoon fighters. If buying the F-16s is not possible, the European Typhoon fighter is an acceptable alternative option.
If the purchase of the European Typhoon fighter is also unsuccessful, Erdogan says Turkey has other options. During his visit to Germany last month, Erdogan confidently stated that if the four countries do not agree to sell the European Typhoon fighters to Turkey, "we have many other doors to knock on."
On the issue of the Russian S-400 system, Turkey has also left itself an alternative. Turkey has tested the system but has not formally deployed it to date. Turkey has maintained close cooperation with Russia in Syria, the South Caucasus, natural gas supply, and other areas.
For Russia, further NATO expansion eastward would continue to compress its strategic space. NATO has already expanded eastward five times, with Finland and Sweden marking NATO's sixth expansion.
After Finland joined NATO, NATO's border with Russia has doubled. If Sweden also joins NATO, the Baltic Sea will be surrounded by NATO countries, making Russia the only non-NATO country around the Baltic Sea.
Sweden's strategic island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea is about 300 kilometers from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is also the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet. Sweden's leading submarine technology would also allow NATO to deploy new-generation submarines in the Baltic Sea after Sweden joins.
Sweden and Finland's accession would also expand NATO's influence in the Arctic, as both countries are members of the Arctic Council. Currently, the Arctic Council has eight members: the U.S., Canada, Russia, and the five Nordic countries. After Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia will become the only non-NATO country in the Arctic Council.
