The Biden administration is intensifying efforts to engage China in nuclear arms discussions, though progress remains tentative. This push comes as the United States grapples with China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, a development that has shifted Washington's strategic focus and sparked a new phase of diplomatic maneuvering.
A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, described the current opportunity for nuclear talks with China as "limited." The official noted, "We saw some limited opportunity to open, at least the beginnings of conversation on the subject in the last months, but it's been fits and starts, and I think it will continue to be fits and starts." This cautious optimism follows recent meetings between U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and top Chinese officials in Beijing, where discussions on nuclear strategy were among the many contentious issues addressed.
Despite the Biden administration's desire to engage China in serious dialogue, formal negotiations on nuclear arms control have yet to materialize. The two nations briefly resumed discussions in November, but those talks have stalled, revealing the difficulties in bridging the gap between the two superpowers. "The scope of U.S.-China talks could initially be narrow," the U.S. official explained, suggesting a focus on less ambitious goals such as strategic warning and risk reduction, rather than comprehensive arms control agreements like the New START treaty with Russia.
China's nuclear build-up has become a significant concern for U.S. policymakers. According to a recent Pentagon assessment, Beijing is expected to expand its nuclear arsenal significantly, with estimates projecting over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, up from 500 today. This modernization includes advancements such as next-generation ballistic missile submarines, hypersonic glide vehicle warheads, and regular nuclear-armed sea patrols, signaling China's intention to enhance its strategic capabilities.
The White House has recently updated its classified nuclear guidance to address these evolving threats. However, a spokesperson emphasized that the updated strategy was not a direct response to any single nation or threat, but rather a continuation of existing policy trends. "We will continue to focus our efforts on reducing nuclear risk by enhancing deterrence and our preference for resolving differences through arms control diplomacy," White House spokesperson Sean Savett stated.
China's reaction to U.S. strategic maneuvers has been one of sharp criticism. Beijing's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. focus on its nuclear capabilities, accusing Washington of using China as a pretext to expand its own arsenal and seeking strategic dominance. "The US has called China a 'nuclear threat' and used it as a convenient pretext to shirk its obligation of nuclear disarmament," the Ministry declared. This response highlights the deepening mistrust between the two countries regarding nuclear issues.
Adding complexity to the situation, China's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament has been questioned. Although Beijing maintains a policy of "no first use" and has joined the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, it has yet to ratify the agreement. Furthermore, China's growing arsenal and ongoing advancements in nuclear technology have led to criticisms from international observers. The U.S. has also imposed stricter controls on nuclear materials and technology exports to China, further straining relations.
