China's population shrank for the third straight year in 2024, marking another chapter in the country's worsening demographic challenges. The National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday that the population fell by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, underscoring a steady decline that began decades ago but has accelerated in recent years.
This latest decline follows a historic turning point in 2023 when China, for the first time in decades, recorded more deaths than births, losing its status as the world's most populous nation to India. Experts warn that this demographic downturn threatens to undermine the world's second-largest economy with an aging workforce, shrinking consumer base, and soaring social welfare costs.
China's aging population now accounts for over 22% of the total, or 310.3 million people, and this figure is expected to surpass 30% by 2035. Government data also revealed a birthrate that continues to plummet despite measures aimed at reversing the trend. The demographic imbalance, exacerbated by decades of the "one-child policy," has left the country grappling with social and economic uncertainties.
The policy, introduced in the late 1970s, sought to curb overpopulation through draconian measures that included forced abortions and fines for unauthorized births. Although officially ended in 2016, its long-term effects linger. A cultural preference for male children has contributed to a significant gender imbalance, with independent groups estimating millions more males than females.
China's urbanization rate climbed slightly in 2024, with an additional 10 million people moving to cities, bringing the urbanization level to 67%. However, urban areas, plagued by high living costs, youth unemployment, and slowing economic growth, have proven less appealing for raising families.
In an effort to boost the birthrate, Beijing has employed various strategies, including subsidies for families with up to three children, restrictions on divorce and abortion, and cash incentives. Yet, these measures have had only temporary impacts, leaving the country in a prolonged demographic slump.
Despite achieving 5% GDP growth in 2024, China faces economic headwinds as a declining workforce and rising social welfare costs strain its financial systems. The government has announced gradual increases to the retirement age-currently among the world's lowest-to mitigate pension deficits. For men, the age will rise from 60 to 63, and for women, adjustments will depend on their roles.
China's struggles are not unique in East Asia, where neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan face similar population declines. However, strict restrictions on immigration have left China, like its neighbors, without a vital avenue for replenishing its labor force.
The country's efforts to reinvigorate its population have even included promoting "auspicious" years, such as the Year of the Dragon, which traditionally sees a spike in births. While 2024 saw a brief increase in marriages and births, experts note the overall trend remains downward.
The challenges are stark. Aging infrastructure designed for a growing population must now be repurposed, with vacant schools converted into eldercare facilities in some regions. Meanwhile, rising costs and social expectations deter many young Chinese from starting families.