The Trump administration's effort to dramatically reduce the federal workforce through a program championed by Elon Musk may have cost taxpayers between $11.1 billion and $15.1 billion while producing far less immediate savings than originally promised, according to a new analysis released by government watchdog Public Citizen.
The report examines the Deferred Resignation Program launched shortly after President Donald Trump returned to office in 2025, concluding that nearly 140,000 federal employees were paid for months after agreeing to leave government service. The findings raise fresh questions about one of the administration's signature government-reform initiatives, which was promoted as a way to streamline Washington while significantly reducing federal spending.
The Deferred Resignation Program emerged in January 2025 following the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an initiative closely associated with Elon Musk's push to overhaul the federal bureaucracy. On Jan. 28, 2025, hundreds of thousands of federal employees received the now well-known "Fork in the Road" email offering them a choice: resign from government service while continuing to receive salary and benefits through Sept. 30, 2025, or remain employed within a substantially downsized government.
Supporters portrayed the proposal as an unprecedented opportunity to eliminate inefficiency. Musk's America PAC argued at the time that the restructuring effort "could lead to around $100 billion in savings," as administration officials promoted a leaner federal workforce.
Public Citizen, however, argues the program produced substantial upfront costs before any long-term savings could materialize.
According to the organization's analysis, based on Office of Personnel Management data, taxpayers ultimately financed months of salary payments for employees who were no longer performing government work. The watchdog estimates the total cost reached between $11.1 billion and $15.1 billion by March 2026.
The scale of employee departures illustrates the breadth of the initiative.
According to Public Citizen:
- More than 106,000 federal employees separated from government service in September 2025.
- An additional 24,000 employees departed by the end of December.
- The Department of Defense reportedly lost more than 48,000 workers.
- The Treasury Department saw approximately 23,000 departures.
- The Department of Agriculture lost more than 14,500 employees.
Whether those reductions ultimately generate long-term savings remains uncertain and will depend on future staffing decisions, litigation and agency operations.
The report also argues that the implementation proved more complicated than anticipated.
Several federal courts ruled that portions of the administration's workforce reductions violated federal law and ordered employees at agencies including the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Interior and Labor to be reinstated. While some of those rulings have since been reversed on appeal, litigation surrounding the workforce reductions continues.
Public Citizen further reported that at least ten federal agencies rehired employees who had accepted deferred resignations after determining that those workers remained essential to fulfilling statutory responsibilities.
Douglas Pasternak, a researcher with Public Citizen, sharply criticized the program's execution.
"The Trump administration's efforts to shrink the federal government have been stupid, costly and deadly," Pasternak said in the report. He argued that workforce reductions weakened government operations while creating significant financial costs for taxpayers.
Criticism of the initiative predates the new report. During the rollout of the Deferred Resignation Program, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia questioned whether the administration possessed the legal authority to compensate employees who were no longer working.
"There's no budget line item to pay people who are not showing up for work," Kaine said at the time, warning that the proposal could generate substantial financial liabilities.
The Office of Personnel Management, which oversees the federal workforce, has been contacted for comment regarding the report's findings.
Public Citizen argues that workforce reductions disrupted agencies responsible for defense, tax administration, agriculture, food safety and other essential federal functions. According to the watchdog, staffing shortages forced some agencies to reverse earlier decisions and restore positions that had initially been eliminated.
Public Citizen concludes that the Deferred Resignation Program became "the epitome of inefficiency" and says the administration's workforce reductions "resulted in billions of dollars in wasted federal funds." The organization further argues that the administration's "inept and inefficient reductions in force policies are likely to be textbook examples of mismanagement in future business school classes."
