President Donald Trump is dismissing concerns that Russia could attack NATO territory even as Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia strengthen defenses against potential sabotage and U.S. intelligence assessments reportedly examine whether Moscow could eventually launch a limited operation designed to test the alliance.
"There is no problem," Trump told Axios when asked about the threat. He also rejected suggestions that CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced trip to Russia reflected an extraordinary effort to warn Moscow against escalating its confrontation with the West.
"Ratcliffe sees his Russian counterpart once every six months or once every year. They have a very good relationship. There was no message and there was nothing unusual," Trump said, describing the CIA director's visit as "standard business."
Asked whether Washington had nevertheless delivered a warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump didn't provide details. He instead offered a categorical assessment of Moscow's intentions, saying Russia is "not going to attack NATO territory."
Trump's public confidence stands against a more cautious assessment taking shape among some NATO members and within parts of the U.S. intelligence community. Reports have indicated that Ratcliffe's Moscow trip was intended, at least in part, to communicate concerns about Russian escalation.
CBS News reported that Ratcliffe also discussed the war involving Iran during the visit, including the prospect of additional sanctions if the Strait of Hormuz isn't fully reopened soon. The trip therefore touched two major security challenges confronting Washington as European governments simultaneously reassess the threat from Russia.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia were preparing for possible Russian operations against critical infrastructure. Lithuania has raised concerns about a potential staged incident, while Poland, Latvia and Estonia have warned about the risk of sabotage.
"We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework," Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.
Lithuania has gone beyond heightened monitoring. According to Reuters, the government deployed a military unit to support riot police protecting several strategically important facilities, including the country's liquefied-natural-gas import terminal, an oil-products terminal, a major electricity connection with Poland and a hydroelectric facility.
"We are increasing the security of our critical infrastructure, we constantly exchange information with our intelligence on what to do next," Kaunas said.
The deployments are intended both to strengthen physical security and demonstrate Lithuania's willingness to respond to potential hostile operations. "We are clearly signaling that, if needed, we will be defending ourselves," Kaunas said.
The immediate concern isn't necessarily a large-scale Russian invasion. A separate U.S. intelligence assessment has reportedly examined whether Putin could authorize a limited attack against a NATO member intended to probe the alliance's willingness to respond collectively, with a cyberattack considered another possible avenue.
The Wall Street Journal reported in early August that U.S. assessments had previously assumed Putin would be unlikely to make such a move while Russia remained heavily engaged in Ukraine. That judgment shifted earlier this year as the conflict continued without decisive changes along much of the front.
Ukraine's ability to conduct strikes deep inside Russia and damage parts of its oil industry has complicated Moscow's war effort even as Russian forces have struggled to achieve broader strategic gains. According to the reported assessment, those conditions could increase the Kremlin's incentive over time to pressure Western governments supporting Kyiv.
A limited action against NATO could be aimed less at acquiring territory than at testing the alliance itself. The strategic objective, according to the report, could be to fracture transatlantic unity by creating uncertainty over whether NATO members would collectively respond to an ambiguous or narrowly targeted Russian operation.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the potential window examined by intelligence officials stretches from this fall through 2029. The assessment described the probability of such an attack as low, but said the risk could increase over time if Putin remains unable to secure the strategic gains Moscow has sought in Ukraine.
