The rapidity of the United States' recovery from the immense economic slowdown inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely rest on two key factors: a vaccine and how Americans feel about their safety.

In making these observations, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the U.S. will definitely overcome the economic damage wrought by the pandemic in an interview with CBS. But he also asserted the U.S. might need a coronavirus vaccine to complete this process. An economic recovery should, nonetheless, begin by the second half of the year as states gradually and slowly reopen their economies.

Powell told the world that in the long run and even in the medium run, no one wants to bet against the U.S. economy. He emphasized the American economy will definitely recover from this crisis. On the other hand, Powell cautioned the recovery will also likely depend on how Americans feel about their safety and health.

He said assuming there isn't a COVID-19 second wave, what we can expect to see is the U.S. economy recover steadily in the last six months of this year. A full U.S. economic recovery, however, will need a vaccine.

He acknowledged the immense pain inflicted by the sudden economic slowdown on tens of millions of American workers and their families. More than 36.5 million Americans have filed unemployment claims over the past eight weeks alone -- the highest since the Great Depression of 1929 -- while the unemployment rate has jumped to a painful 14.7%, another post Depression high.

Powell acknowledged the COVID-19 pandemic is a time of great suffering and difficulty for most Americans. He was astounded the pandemic came so quickly and with such force one can't put into words the pain Americans are feeling.

Sounding optimistic, however, Powell said the U.S. economic recovery might extend well in 2021 but this, again, will depend on the existence of a coronavirus vaccine. Again, he emphasized the U.S. economy will recover.  The recovery might take a while and might even extend until the end of 2021.

Starting April, the Fed has approved a range of financial programs to ensure businesses and financial markets continue operating during the pandemic. These moves also intend to limit the number of business failures, especially among small and medium firms that employed 58.9 million people, or 47.5% of the private workforce, in 2015, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA).

The vast majority, or 88%, of employer firms have fewer than 20 employees. Nearly 40% of all business firms have under $100,000 in revenue. It's these firms that are the hardest hit by the COVID-19 induced economic slowdown.