The world health crisis has hammered retail stores across the U.S. but now UBS predicts around 80,000 retail stores, or nearly 10%, will permanently close shop by 2026, Fortune reported Tuesday.
The forecast is based on estimates that e-commerce as a percentage of retail revenues will increase to 27% from 18% now - several percentage points higher compared with earlier projections.
The scenario laid out by UBS is still better compared with an earlier estimate. In April last year, UBS analysts estimated that 100,000 retail stores would shut by 2025.
At the end of 2020, there were around 115,000 shopping centers across the U.S., compared with 112,000 in 2010 and 90,000 in 2000, data from the International Council of Shopping Centers shows.
The consumer electronics, apparel, home furnishings and sporting goods' sectors will account for the biggest number of closures, the UBS analysts project. They predict the number of U.S. malls will also drop over the next five years.
Although more Americans are increasingly ordering everything from shampoo and hand sanitizers to mouthwash on the internet, store openings are outpacing closures for the first time in years.
"An enduring legacy of the pandemic is that online penetration rose sharply," Fortune quoted retail equity analyst Michael Lasser as writing in a 94-page research note to clients.
U.S. retailers have announced 3,170 store closures and 3,535 store openings so far in 2021, data compiled by Coresight Research show.
