Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced they will limit their attacks in the Red Sea to Israeli-linked vessels, provided a fragile Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented. The decision, communicated through the Houthi-controlled Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), marks a shift in the group's maritime campaign, which has disrupted critical global shipping routes since November 2023.
The announcement, made on Sunday via an email to shipping companies, indicated that the Houthis would cease "sanctions" on vessels owned by or flagged under the United States and the United Kingdom. However, they warned that any aggression against Yemen by these nations or Israel would prompt the reinstatement of attacks. "You will be promptly informed of such measures should they be implemented," the HOCC said.
Despite the pledge, the shipping industry remains wary. Major companies have rerouted vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea corridor, a vital chokepoint for cargo and energy shipments between Asia and Europe. The conflict has halved maritime traffic through the area, significantly impacting Egypt's revenues from the Suez Canal.
Since November, the Iranian-backed Houthis have conducted more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels, sinking two ships, seizing one, and killing four sailors. Although they claim to target only ships linked to Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom, several of the vessels attacked had no ties to the conflict, raising doubts about the reliability of their intelligence.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which entered its second day on Monday, remains tenuous. Jakob P. Larsen, head of maritime security for BIMCO, a leading shipping association, emphasized the risks. "The ceasefire is considered fragile. Even minor deviations could prompt the Houthis to resume broader threats against international shipping," he said.
In recent weeks, Houthi attacks on ships at sea have decreased, coinciding with a U.S.-led airstrike campaign. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the United States and its allies have conducted over 260 strikes against Houthi forces. Still, the rebels continue to launch drones and missiles targeting Israel and claim their actions are a response to aggression in Gaza.
Another complicating factor is the upcoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on Monday. Trump has indicated he may reapply the foreign terrorist organization designation on the Houthis, a classification President Joe Biden revoked. Larsen noted that such a move could reignite attacks. "Uncertainty is further exacerbated by today's inauguration of Trump," he said.
The impact of the conflict has been far-reaching. Higher insurance premiums for ships traversing the Red Sea have added hundreds of thousands of dollars to shipping costs. Many vessels remain anchored or rerouted as companies await assurances of safety. "We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so," a spokesperson for German shipping group Hapag-Lloyd said.
The human cost of the conflict is also stark. The Bahamian-flagged Galaxy Leader, seized by Houthi forces in November, remains under their control. Its 25 crew members, hailing from the Philippines, Mexico, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, are reportedly suffering from malaria and mental distress. "The Filipinos, Mexicans, Romanians, Bulgarians, and Ukrainian who were on board are desperate to leave Yemen," said Galaxy Maritime Ltd, the vessel's owner, in a statement.