Prediction markets tracking the 2028 U.S. presidential race are signaling a sharp reassessment of the political landscape, with Vice President J.D. Vance still leading but losing momentum as California Gov. Gavin Newsom gains ground. Data from Polymarket show Vance's implied probability of winning the presidency slipping to 26%, down from roughly 31% in recent months, while Newsom's odds have risen to 20%.
The shift reflects heightened trading activity and growing speculation about the durability of early frontrunners nearly four years before voters cast ballots. Polymarket contracts tied to Vance have attracted about $5.6 million in trading volume, while wagers on Newsom have climbed to roughly $3.8 million, underscoring a narrowing gap between the Republican and Democratic standard-bearers.
Vance remains the market leader, buoyed by his current role in the White House and his standing within the Republican Party. Still, traders appear to be factoring in political headwinds and the uncertainty of an extended primary season. Market participants note that early dominance often proves fragile as candidates face policy scrutiny, media cycles and shifting voter coalitions.
Newsom's rise has been steadier than sudden. His odds have climbed from about 18% as attention has focused on his national profile, frequent clashes with Republican leaders and positioning as a Democratic alternative with executive experience. Traders appear to be betting that his visibility beyond California could translate into broader appeal as the Democratic field takes shape.
Beyond the top two, the markets show meaningful interest in several other figures, even if their odds remain in single digits. Current Polymarket probabilities include:
- Marco Rubio at about 9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez near 6%
- Josh Shapiro around 4%
Public figures outside traditional politics, including Dwayne Johnson and Elon Musk, are listed at roughly 1%, largely reflecting speculative curiosity rather than organized campaigns.
In total, more than $240 million has flowed through the 2028 presidential market, highlighting the growing role of prediction platforms as a barometer of political sentiment. Traders buy "Yes" or "No" contracts on whether a candidate will ultimately win, with prices functioning as implied probabilities.
Market operators caution that these odds are not forecasts but reflections of collective expectations, often shaped by news cycles and online discourse rather than firm voter intent. Early-stage markets can exaggerate swings, particularly with more than 20 potential contenders listed.
Still, advocates of prediction markets point to their historical track record. The Iowa Electronic Markets, among the oldest of such platforms, closely tracked outcomes in several past presidential races, including Barack Obama's 2008 victory.
The 2028 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 7, 2028, with final results to be resolved by official calls from outlets such as Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News, or by the inauguration on Jan. 20, 2029. As the race evolves, traders appear increasingly willing to challenge early assumptions about who will emerge on top.
