President Donald Trump faced accusations of moving financial markets with unverified claims about diplomacy with Iran after a Monday morning social-media post helped send stocks sharply higher and oil prices sharply lower, only for Tehran to reject the premise of the statement within the hour.
The episode unfolded just before the U.S. trading day began, tying a volatile geopolitical crisis to a violent market reaction. At 7:04 a.m. ET, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East," and said he had instructed the Department of War to "postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period."
Markets moved immediately. According to financial analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 had risen 240 points by 7:10 a.m. ET, a move it said added about $2 trillion in market capitalization. Oil also dropped hard, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling as much as 14%, to about $89 a barrel.
Then came the reversal. Iran's foreign ministry told the semi-official Mehr News Agency that "there is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington." A separate Iranian official said the government had "no direct contact with Trump, not even through intermediaries." As that denial spread, the S&P 500 gave back roughly half the gains, erasing about $1 trillion in market value, according to The Kobeissi Letter, which described the episode as "$3 trillion in market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500."
The timing quickly became part of the controversy. Trump's post came roughly two hours before U.S. markets opened, and the five-day military pause he described would expire near the end of the energy trading week. Critics argued that the structure of the announcement appeared unusually well calibrated to influence both equities and oil.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian academic described in the article as closely linked to the Iranian government, said on X that the pattern was becoming familiar. "Every week, when markets open, Trump makes these kinds of statements to drive down oil prices. Even his five-day deadline aligns with the closure of the energy market," Marandi wrote. "But in reality, there are no negotiations underway, nor does Trump have the capability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz."
That accusation was echoed by commentator Aaron Parnas in a TikTok video that, according to the article, drew nearly 30,000 likes within hours on March 23. Parnas argued Trump had previously used the same approach on tariffs and was now applying it to the oil market and equities. "He just says something to manipulate the market to change that," Parnas said.
Trump later reinforced the claim that diplomacy was underway, telling Fox Business that Iran wants a deal "badly" and that an agreement could be reached within five days or sooner. He also told reporters that his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had spoken with a "top person" on the Iranian side, though he did not identify the official.
Even as markets reacted anew to those remarks, the underlying facts described in the article had not materially changed. Iran maintained its denial. No third-party government publicly confirmed that talks had taken place. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, Iranian missile launches at Israel were continuing into Monday, and crude prices were still more than $30 above prewar levels.
