Mexico recorded one of its sharpest declines in lethal violence in recent years, but a major new security assessment warns that the apparent improvement masks a deeper transformation in organized crime, with disappearances, extortion and localized cartel conflicts increasingly replacing mass homicide as the dominant threats.
The findings, published Tuesday in the 2026 Peace Index by the Institute for Economics and Peace, showed homicides in Mexico fell 22.7% over the past year while overall peace levels improved by 5.1%.
The report broadly reinforces claims made by Claudia Sheinbaum, whose administration has repeatedly pointed to falling murder rates as evidence that its intelligence-driven security strategy is beginning to produce measurable results after years of cartel violence.
Yet researchers behind the report warned that the decline in killings should not be mistaken for a comprehensive stabilization of Mexico's security environment.
"Structural risks threatening the sustainability of these advances persist," the report stated, arguing that Mexico is entering "a transition stage in the dynamics of violence and criminality."
That transition, according to the IEP, increasingly involves criminal organizations shifting away from high-profile mass killings toward less visible but deeply destabilizing forms of violence.
Among the most concerning trends identified in the report:
- Rising disappearances across several regions.
- Expansion of extortion networks tied to fragmented criminal groups.
- Greater use of firearms in ordinary street-level crime.
- Domestic violence consolidating itself as Mexico's most common offense.
Researchers said the increase in disappearances reflects both "the persistence of criminal structures" and serious institutional weaknesses in investigations and prosecutions.
The findings underscore a growing concern among security analysts that Mexico's organized-crime landscape is becoming more decentralized and therefore harder for authorities to contain.
Rather than operating through a handful of dominant cartels, criminal activity is increasingly splintering into smaller regional factions competing for control over local economies, transportation routes and extortion rackets.
The report specifically highlighted renewed instability in Sinaloa following internal fractures inside the Sinaloa Cartel after the capture of cartel leader Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada.
Analysts say those internal divisions have intensified localized violence even as national homicide figures trend downward.
Official Mexican government data released in April showed the country averaging 51.4 homicides per day in March - the lowest level recorded for that month since 2016.
The Sheinbaum administration has argued that homicides have fallen approximately 41% since she took office in October 2024.
Officials attribute the decline to a strategy focused on:
- Intelligence operations.
- Targeted arrests.
- Financial disruption of criminal networks.
- Increased coordination between federal security agencies.
The improvement marks a notable shift from the later years of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose "hugs, not bullets" approach prioritized social programs and reduced direct military confrontation with organized crime groups.
Under López Obrador, homicide rates reached historic highs between 2018 and 2020 before gradually beginning to decline.
Still, the Peace Index warns that falling homicide numbers alone may obscure deeper institutional fragility.
Mexico's prison population has now climbed above 256,000 inmates, the highest level on record, placing additional strain on correctional systems already criticized for overcrowding and corruption.
The report also cited what it described as a "historic deficit" in investigative and judicial capacity, driven by staffing shortages, slow-moving prosecutions and severe case backlogs across the criminal justice system.
