Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's sweeping cabinet reform in September, aimed at rescuing his plummeting approval ratings, has not halted the further decline in support for his cabinet.
According to the latest poll released by Kyodo News, the approval rating for Kishida's cabinet has fallen to 28.3%, entering the "danger zone" of below 30%. This not only marks the lowest approval rating since Kishida took office in October 2021 but also the first time since 2009 that a Liberal Democratic Party-led cabinet has fallen below the 30% mark. The LDP suffered a significant defeat in the 2009 election, transitioning from the ruling party to the opposition, which led to then-LDP President Taro Aso resigning from his position.
Before the new poll results were released, Kishida had announced an economic stimulus package worth 17 trillion yen (approximately 823.9 billion yuan) to combat inflation, which included tax cuts for residents and cash handouts for low-income families.
However, the poll indicated that even the government's tax cuts and cash handouts failed to win over voters. A November 5 Kyodo News poll showed that a significant 62.5% of respondents did not support the tax cut plan included in the new stimulus package. A similar poll by Japan News Network on November 6 showed 64% of respondents opposed the tax cut plan, and the support rate for Kishida's cabinet had dropped to 29.1%.
Under the 17 trillion yen stimulus package approved by the cabinet last week, each Japanese citizen would receive a one-time income tax and resident tax reduction of 30,000 yen and 10,000 yen, respectively, while low-income families not required to pay resident tax would receive a 70,000 yen subsidy. The tax cut measures are set to be implemented as early as June 2024.
Kishida had stated that the purpose of the tax cuts and subsidies was to stimulate consumption by increasing the disposable income of citizens, thereby creating a positive economic cycle for Japan.
However, the Kyodo News poll revealed that among those who did not support the tax cut plan, 40.4% believed that the one-time tax cut was merely a temporary measure by the government, with the real intention of raising taxes later to pay for new defense spending. Kishida's previous approach of introducing new policies with tax increases had earned him the nickname "Tax Hike Glasses Man."
Last year, the Japanese government revised three documents, including the "National Security Strategy," to explicitly include Japan's "counterstrike capabilities." Japan also plans to increase its defense spending to 2% of GDP over the next five years, aligning with NATO levels, a significant increase from its longstanding cap of about 1%.
The Japanese government has set the total defense budget for the next five years at approximately 43 trillion yen. However, Japanese media calculations suggest that considering factors such as the depreciation of the yen and rising prices, the actual defense spending will exceed the planned amount by more than 800 billion yen. The Japanese public is concerned that the government will further increase taxes to cover the soaring defense costs.
Among those dissatisfied with the tax cut plan, 20.6% believed the government should strengthen fiscal policy rather than expand spending to stimulate the economy, while 19.3% thought Kishida's new stimulus package was merely an attempt to boost cabinet support rates.
Last month's poll showed Kishida's cabinet at a 32.3% approval rating, which was at 39% when the cabinet was reshuffled in September. In Japan, a cabinet approval rating below 30% is considered to be in "dangerous territory," and below 20% is even closer to "resignation territory."
The greatest dissatisfaction among Japanese voters has been triggered by persistent inflation and shrinking real wages. Data released by the Japanese government at the end of last month showed that the country's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in September, a decrease from August's 3.1% increase but still above market expectations. This marks the 18th consecutive month that Japan's core inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
Japan's core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of fresh food but includes energy prices, saw continued price increases in September for food, daily necessities, and other categories. Non-fresh food prices rose by 8.8%, lodging fees by 17.9%, household consumables like toilet paper by 12.7%, and mobile communication fees by 10.2%.
The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's labor statistics survey on Tuesday also showed that due to rising prices, Japan's real wages in September decreased by 2.4% compared to the same period last year, marking the 18th consecutive month of decline.
Although Japan's total cash earnings in September rose for the 21st consecutive month to 279,304 yen, the wage increase did not keep pace with the rise in prices, continuing to burden household economies with inflation.
In addition to persistent inflation, scandals involving cabinet members have also been a significant factor in the decline of Kishida's cabinet support rate.
At the end of last month, Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Taro Yamada, resigned over an extramarital affair, becoming the first high-ranking official to resign following Kishida's cabinet reshuffle. Earlier this year, Kishida's eldest son, Shotaro Kishida, resigned from his position as the Prime Minister's secretary after being exposed for hosting a party at the Prime Minister's official residence.
Last year, the ministers in charge of economic revitalization, justice, and internal affairs resigned due to scandals or gaffes. The latest Kyodo News poll showed that 72.7% of respondents believed Kishida needed to take responsibility for appointing these cabinet members.
Although Kishida's cabinet support rate has fallen to the danger line, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party still maintains a lead with a 34.1% support rate, far ahead of other parties. The second-ranked Constitutional Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin no Kai both have a support rate of 9.3%. The LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, ranks third with 4.7%.
The LDP is set to hold its presidential election next September, and Kishida will seek re-election. Previously, Japanese media speculated that to stabilize his rule, Kishida might dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early elections this year. Currently, the LDP holds a majority in the House of Representatives, and even if an early election is called, the LDP is likely to win, allowing Kishida to continue as Prime Minister.
However, with Kishida's cabinet support rate falling into "dangerous territory," whether he will announce an early election remains uncertain. To avoid being ousted by other factions within the LDP, Kishida has begun to further court the party's largest faction, the Abe faction, led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
In an interview with conservative media last week, Kishida made it clear that he was serious about pushing for constitutional amendments. He stated that amending the constitution was not a matter of "can or cannot do," but "must do."
Amending Japan's pacifist constitution to include the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9 was a long-standing wish of Shinzo Abe, who continuously pushed for constitutional amendments during his tenure. Kyodo News pointed out that Kishida's stance on constitutional amendments has not been as active as Abe's since taking office, and his latest remarks are more out of concern for being abandoned by the Abe faction amid low approval ratings.
However, the report suggests that Kishida's overtures to Abe on the constitutional amendment issue have left the impression of being in a panic over support rates. Even with vigorous promotion of constitutional amendments, Kishida may ultimately fail to gain the recognition of the Abe faction's senior leadership.
