Scott Bessent said Americans may not see gasoline prices return to $3 per gallon until late summer, acknowledging a shifting timeline as Donald Trump administration officials confront rising fuel costs tied to global oil disruptions and the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The updated outlook emerged during a White House briefing after Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy pressed Bessent on earlier projections. "Again, I'm optimistic that sometime between June 20 and September 20, that we can have $3 (£2.21) gas again," Bessent said, offering the clearest timeframe yet after previous assurances that prices could fall by early summer.
The revision underscores a widening gap between earlier expectations and current market conditions. In mid-March, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there was "a very good chance" prices would drop below $3 by summer, but later acknowledged that "by the summer is an aggressive timeframe now."
Fuel prices have moved in the opposite direction. According to American Automobile Association data, the national average has climbed from $2.98 per gallon on February 28 to $4.11 this week, a 38% increase. The surge coincides with U.S. military operations and instability affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy supply.
Key market indicators reflect the pressure:
- Brent crude: $96 per barrel
- West Texas Intermediate: $91.23 per barrel (down from $117.63 peak)
- California average gas price: $5.87 per gallon
More than 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait, making disruptions there a primary driver of volatility. Even partial reopening under a tentative ceasefire has not fully restored market stability.
Bessent sought to balance caution with optimism, pointing to recent declines in crude prices. He said the administration would monitor retail pricing behavior closely. "We are going to be watching the gas stations because they raised prices very quickly when the crude oil prices went up," he said. "We hope they'll bring them down just as quickly as crude oil prices have come down."
At the CNBC Invest in America Forum, Bessent added that the Treasury would work to "keep the retail gas stations honest," warning that the president "will call out anyone who's a bad actor." The remarks signal potential political pressure on retailers rather than direct regulatory intervention.
Mixed messaging from the administration has complicated expectations. Trump told Fox News that prices could be "the same or maybe a little bit higher" by the November midterm elections, while separately saying they would "go down tremendously" if geopolitical tensions ease.
Bessent tied any meaningful price relief to diplomatic developments. "I think that's going to be up to how the negotiations go," he said, noting that Middle Eastern officials indicated production could ramp up "within one week" after full reopening of key shipping routes.
Analysts remain cautious about a rapid reversal. Energy expert David Blackmon told The Daily Caller News Foundation: "So much damage has been done now to infrastructure and global flows of oil that it's baked into the cake." He added, "You could end this thing today. Prices are not going to go back."
