CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow this week and warned Russian officials against attacking a NATO member, according to CBS News, in an unusual high-level intelligence visit that came as U.S. assessments and European governments increasingly focus on the risk that Russia could test the alliance with a limited military or cyber operation.
Ratcliffe's previously unannounced trip also included discussions about the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, CBS News reported. The CIA director warned that additional sanctions could follow if the strategically important waterway isn't fully reopened soon, according to the report.
President Donald Trump, however, played down the significance of Ratcliffe's visit. Speaking Wednesday with radio host Glenn Beck, Trump described the journey as a "semi-routine" intelligence trip and said it wasn't connected to either Iran or reports that Russia could be preparing to test NATO.
The Kremlin confirmed that Ratcliffe held meetings with Russian counterparts but said he didn't meet President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also rejected reports suggesting Moscow was considering an attack on a NATO country.
"A lot of such scare stories are being published right now. Of course, they have nothing to do with reality," Peskov said. He argued instead that Russia is "facing a very aggressive policy towards itself from European countries."
The conflicting accounts come as NATO members bordering Russia step up protection of strategically important infrastructure. Reuters reported earlier this month that Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia had raised concerns about possible Russian sabotage or a staged incident that could be used as a pretext for further escalation.
Lithuania has taken some of the most visible precautions. The government deployed a military unit to support riot police guarding facilities including a liquefied-natural-gas import terminal, an oil-products terminal, a major electricity connection with Poland and a hydroelectric plant.
"We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework," Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.
"We are increasing the security of our critical infrastructure, we constantly exchange information with our intelligence on what to do next," Kaunas added. Describing Lithuania's deployments, he said: "We are clearly signaling that, if needed, we will be defending ourselves".
The increased precautions coincide with a shift in U.S. intelligence assessments about the potential threat Russia poses to NATO while the war in Ukraine continues. A recent assessment cited by The Wall Street Journal said Putin could eventually consider a limited attack against an alliance member designed to test NATO's willingness to respond collectively.
A cyberattack is another scenario under consideration. The objective of a limited operation, according to the report, could be to expose divisions among NATO members and weaken confidence in the alliance's Article 5 collective-defense commitment rather than initiate a conventional war across Europe.
The Wall Street Journal reported in early August that earlier U.S. assessments generally concluded Putin was unlikely to take such a risk while Russian forces remained heavily committed in Ukraine. That view began changing earlier this year as the conflict persisted without decisive movement along much of the front.
Ukraine's growing ability to strike targets deep inside Russia has also altered the strategic picture. Kyiv has increasingly attacked Russian oil and other economic infrastructure, inflicting damage far from the battlefield even as territorial lines have remained comparatively stable.
According to the intelligence assessment, a Russian attempt to test NATO could occur sometime between this fall and 2029. Officials continue to assess the probability as low, but the risk is expected to increase over time if Putin remains unable to secure the strategic gains Moscow has sought in Ukraine.
