Oil prices surged Thursday as reports that President Donald Trump is considering renewed large-scale strikes against Iran raised the prospect of another disruption to energy supplies before November's midterm elections. U.S. stock futures fell and Treasury yields climbed.
Brent crude rose 4.23% to $104.44 a barrel at 7:49 a.m. Eastern time, while West Texas Intermediate gained 4.40% to $92.16. Other early-trading readings put Brent above $105, up more than 5%, and U.S. crude near $93.
Trump and his national security team have discussed resuming major operations in the coming weeks, NBC News reported, citing people familiar with the deliberations. No decision has been made. Axios separately reported that the Pentagon instructed U.S. Central Command to finish preparations for a potential campaign.
Such an operation could include extensive bombing of Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear targets, Axios reported. Renewed large-scale strikes would break a three-month stalemate, although attacks on commercial shipping have continued during that period.
A White House official, responding to the reporting, said Washington remained in a strong position because of its control over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's deteriorating economy. "Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways: the easy way or the hard way," the official said.
Trump offered a similar assessment at a Texas campaign rally Wednesday, claiming Tehran was nearing collapse. "I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop," he said.
The latest shipping figures underscore the continuing danger. The Joint Maritime Information Center recorded 12 attacks against tankers in the week ended Oct. 5, the highest weekly total since the war began in late February.
Washington and Tehran gave conflicting accounts of conditions in Hormuz. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a senior adviser to Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief, said Iranian forces controlled the waterway and restrictions would remain until the country's demands were met.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio disputed that assessment Wednesday. "The Strait of Hormuz is open. There's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began," he said.
MarineTraffic data nevertheless showed overall vessel traffic remained sharply depressed, averaging fewer than 23 ships daily from Sept. 28 through Oct. 4. That measure tracks ship movements rather than the volume of oil carried.
The market reaction extended beyond crude. European diesel futures gained 4.5%, while heating-oil futures rose more than 4%. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.35%; S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.8% and Russell 2000 futures lost 1%.
Bank of America commodities chief Francisco Blanch warned in September that continued shipping disruptions could keep Brent between $95 and $120 through year-end. A broader conflict damaging major energy facilities could push prices as high as $150, he wrote.
Transportation costs are also mounting. Bloomberg, citing Baltic Exchange data, reported that shipping a cargo of U.S. crude to Asia now costs $77 million, compared with a 2025 average of $9.2 million.
For American motorists, regular gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon Thursday, more than 45% above its level when U.S. and Israeli attacks began Feb. 28. Diesel averaged $6.28, an increase of almost 70%, with early voting already underway.
