China predicts it will have attained COVID-19 herd immunity by the middle of 2022 when it vaccinates one billion out of its total population of 1.4 billion persons despite a slow start to its national vaccination campaign.
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on Saturday claimed China now has the capacity to vaccinate anywhere from 70% to 80% of its population, or 900 million to 1 billion people, from the end of 2021 until mid-2022.
Attaining this goal will meet the global standard for reaching herd immunity, which occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to an infection such as COVID-19, whether through vaccination or previous infections.
Earlier this month, China's health authorities said they plan to boost efforts to vaccinate 560 million people, or 40% of China's population, by the end of June. A further 330 million people will be vaccinated by the end of 2021. In all, 64% of China's total population should be vaccinated by the end of 2021.
CCDC director Dr. Gao Fu, however, believes herd immunity can be achieved even earlier than mid-2022 if China's COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers continue to expand production and supply to reduce a massive supply gap.
"We hope that China can take the lead in achieving herd immunity in the world," he said.
China only administered 52.5 million vaccine doses by the end of February. Government health experts admit China's vaccination campaign has been slower than many other countries, including the U.S.
Part of the slow domestic vaccination pace is due to China providing 10 times more doses abroad than distributing at home as part of its vaccine diplomacy to burnish China's image in developing countries.
Four Chinese-made vaccines are currently being used to inoculate the Chinese population and have emergency use authorizations.
These vaccines are the two-dose "BBIBP-CorV" from Sinopharm, the Beijing Institute of Biological Products and the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products; "CoronaVac" from Sinovac Biotech Ltd.; the one dose "Ad5-nCoV" (Convidicea) from CanSino Biologics and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology of the Academy of Military Medical Sciences and "ZF2001" (RBD-Dimer) from Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biopharmaceutical Co. Ltd.
China's vaccine makers are responding to the government call to ramp-up production. Sinopharm Group Chairman Yu Qingming said Sinopharm would expand vaccine production capacity to three billion doses per year, becoming the world's biggest vaccine producer.
Sinovac Biotech said its annual production capacity would be expanded to two billion doses by June. CanSinoBIO revealed its production capacity will expand to 500 million doses annually within March.
Health experts said expanded production over the next few months and vaccine imports would help plug China's existing supply gap. They also called for more investment and resource allocation, especially in areas where vaccinations started late.
