Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecast for gold and other commodities amid the turmoil in Ukraine. In a note to clients on Sunday, Goldman Sachs said supply disruptions, the situation in Ukraine following the Russian invasion, and a worse inflation outlook would result in higher prices in the coming months.
The investment bank told investors to pay close attention to commodities such as gas, oil, aluminum, nickel, palladium, wheat, and corn. Given the recently imposed sanctions against Russia imposed by the U.S. and other western countries, the export of commodities from Russia may be a major issue in the short term.
Goldman Sachs analysts said concerns of further military escalation and sanctions would all affect the near-term price outcomes for commodities that Russia is a key producer of. The bank also said that it expects the gold, another safe-haven asset, to rally in the coming months.
Goldman Sachs said the recent conflict in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and broader inflation would drive gold prices higher in the coming month. The bank has set a $2,150 per troy ounce price target for gold.
Gold rose beyond $1,916 an ounce on Monday as a result of new penalties imposed by western countries against Russia. As the trading session proceeded, some gains were erased, with April Comex gold closing at $1,905.70. The precious metal is on track to have its best month since May.
Goldman Sachs noted that gold would play a key part in this dispute as Russia seeks leverage through the precious metal in the face of foreign sanctions. The bank said Russia might use its large domestic gold stockpile as a last resort to continue foreign trade with countries like China.
The World Gold Council estimates Russia's gold reserves to be around 2,298.53 tonnes. Analysts predict that gold prices could hit $2,000 "in only a matter of days."
Goldman Sachs also estimates oil prices to surge in the coming months. The bank increased its one-month Brent crude oil price projection from $95 a barrel to $115 a barrel. Analysts said Russia might become increasingly isolated as foreign sanctions start to affect its ability to export outside the country. As of Tuesday, Brent has been trading well above $100 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate has been trading around $96 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs has expressed increased concerns about the pace of inflation so far this year. The bank said it expects core inflation to be around 3.7% through the end of 2022. This was a significant jump from its previous 3.1% estimate. The bank said it expects the Federal Reserve to impose seven rate hikes before the year ends.