Quantum computing stocks experienced a sharp downturn Wednesday after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tempered expectations for the technology's timeline, stating that practical quantum computing could be as far as 15 to 30 years away. Huang's remarks, made during a Q&A with Wall Street analysts, prompted a swift market reaction, with shares in key companies in the sector plunging in premarket trading.
"If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that'd probably be on the early side," Huang said during the session. "If you said 30, it's probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it." The comments, while not unexpected given the nascent state of quantum technology, sent shockwaves through a sector that had enjoyed a meteoric rise in valuations over the past year.
Rigetti Computing, which had seen its stock price soar over 1,700% in the last 12 months, dropped 25%. IonQ fell more than 13%, while D-Wave Quantum lost over 19%. Quantum Computing Inc., which had recently announced plans to raise $100 million through a stock offering, saw its shares decline by 21%. Collectively, the selloff erased more than $2 billion in market capitalization for the quantum computing sector.
Quantum computing has captured significant investor interest due to its potential to revolutionize industries ranging from pharmaceuticals to cybersecurity. The technology leverages quantum mechanics to perform calculations far beyond the capabilities of traditional computers. In a much-publicized breakthrough last year, Google's Willow chip completed a computation in five minutes that would take current supercomputers billions of years. However, even Google described its achievement as a "convincing prototype" rather than a scalable solution.
Despite such advancements, Huang's forecast underscored the vast challenges that remain before quantum computing can achieve widespread utility. While Nvidia is heavily involved in the sector, Huang's assessment suggested that commercial applications are still decades away. Nvidia will play a "very significant part" in helping the industry get there "as fast as possible", he added, signaling the company's commitment to supporting the technology's development.
The rapid decline in quantum computing stocks reflects the speculative nature of investments in emerging technologies. The sector had been buoyed by optimism surrounding its transformative potential, but analysts have long warned that the timeline for profitability remains uncertain. Many of the companies in the space are still in the research phase, with limited revenue and substantial hurdles to overcome.
Huang's comments also cast a shadow over broader tech markets, with the Defiance Quantum & AI ETF falling 3% in trading. Investors appeared to reassess the near-term viability of quantum computing as a driver of growth in the technology sector. However, some industry insiders cautioned against interpreting the selloff as a sign of diminished long-term potential.
The correction comes on the heels of a wave of enthusiasm that propelled quantum computing stocks to record highs in 2024. Companies such as Rigetti and D-Wave saw gains of 1,449% and 854%, respectively, fueled by a combination of technological breakthroughs and speculative fervor. That enthusiasm now appears to be giving way to a more measured outlook as the challenges of scaling quantum systems become more apparent.
Despite the market volatility, research and development in quantum computing remain robust. The competition to achieve practical, error-corrected quantum systems is intensifying among technology giants, startups, and academic institutions. Nvidia, for its part, is focusing on developing tools to simulate quantum algorithms and advance the field.
